Presidential Elections Could Be a Harbinger of Strong Activity in 2025;
Pioneer Realty Group: Home Sale Activity Increases 10.75% in 12 Months Following Elections; Results Higher When Democratic Nominee Wins Race
CHICAGO (October 2, 2024)—Homebuying activity in Chicago has a strong likelihood of increasing in 2025, the year after the general election, based on a review of residential sale statistics generated by the Chicago Association of Realtors by Pioneer Realty Group. Data for the number of units was available going back to 1992. Average sales prices or list prices were not available for election years and the year following.
Based on statistics from the last eight elections, dating back to 1992, the number of home sales completed in the year following an election year has increased an average of 10.75%. In the five presidential elections when the Democratic nominee won, sales increased by 14.86%. In the three presidential elections won by the Republican candidate, sales increased by an average of 3.9%.
Since the 1992 election, sales the year following an election have increased by as much as 28.3%—in 2021, the year Joseph Biden took office. Conversely, sales have fallen by as much as 5.9%—in 2009, the year Barrack Obama was sworn in following the Great Financial Crisis that began during the presidency of George W. Bush.
“There is more to the trajectory of home sales than which party wins an election,” said Helen Bailey, founder and designated managing broker, Pioneer Realty Group. “At Pioneer, we believe Chicago’s residential marketplace is poised to see a healthy level of activity in 2025 given the trajectory of inflation rates continually moving lower and the average 30-year interest rate reaching its lowest level in roughly two years.”
There are also a number of different scenarios that make projecting the trajectory of home sales in 2025 as interesting as identifying the winner of the 2024 election based on the almost daily barrage of swing state and national polls. Following is a summary of those scenarios.
Incumbents not on the ballot
There is one category of data that is not as bullish for the year after election sales—elections where an incumbent presidential candidate could not win, because he had already served two terms in office. In the last eight presidential election cycles, that scenario has occurred three times.
In the full years after elections when incumbents Clinton, Bush and Obama could not (or dd not) run, annual home sales showed the weakest year-over-year gain, including the only year that produced a decline in the number of homes sold. In fact, the average home sales declined an average of 0.43%, although only one of those years—2008/2009 produced a downturn in sales.
Democrats following democrats
There have been two elections where the winner of the election was a democrat when the democrats were the incumbent party. In the year after those elections, the number of home sales increased by an average of 13.15%.
Republicans following democrats
There have been two elections where the winner of the election was a republican when the democrats were the incumbent party. In the year after those elections, the number of home sales increased by an average of 2.3%.
The other potential scenarios, a democratic nominee following a republican incumbent and a republican nominee following a republican incumbent, are not possible in the upcoming election.
The presidential election results notwithstanding, Bailey is optimistic about what 2025 could mean for home sales in Chicago.
“The proposal by Vice President Harris to give first time homebuyers a $25,000 credit toward a downpayment would help to spur market activity,” she said. “Additionally, if that credit is paired with homebuilders adding to the supply of home targeted to first time or young buyers, we could see a prolonged period of strong homebuying activity.”
About Pioneer Realty Group
Founded in 2017, Pioneer Realty Group is a Chicago neighborhood-based real estate firm that represents homebuyers and home sellers, rental property owners and building owners by providing leasing, property sales and property management services. On an almost quarterly basis, the firm hosts PRG Homebuyer University to help first time homebuyers, among others, navigate the various steps in buying a home.
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Media Contact for Pioneer Realty Group
Michael Millar, Open Slate Communications
847-863-1037, [email protected]
| Situation | YOY Change
Percent (%) |
| All Elections (8 elections) | 10.75 |
| Democratic Candidate Wins (5 Elections) | 14.86 |
| Republican Candidate Wins (3 elections) | 3.9 |
| Non Incumbent Candidate Wins (3 Elections) | -0.43 |
| Same Party Wins (3 elections) | 11.3 |
| Incumbent was a Democrat (3 elections) | 7.73 |